Worldwide adoption of 4K 120fps streaming with decent picture quality won't happen anytime soon even in best scenario.

TrashPanda wrote on 2023-02-08, 13:52:

Gaming has tried so many times to move to the cloud and FAILED ...much like VR has tried several times to get adopted and never […]
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acl wrote on 2023-02-08, 13:44:

What really confuses me for the future is that younger generation just can't use computers. Sure, they use smartphones, tablets […]
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dionb wrote on 2023-02-08, 09:45:

And even with the V5-6k, there are people who through incompentence kill theirs... that means shrinking supply, so even if the number of enthousiasts starts dropping at some point, prices probably won't.

What really confuses me for the future is that younger generation just can't use computers.
Sure, they use smartphones, tablets and web apps, but these are a ways to consume content, you can't tinker with these devices.
These are just devices promoted by online services to provide a frictionless experience for the user to consume content with ease and spend money.
Game consoles are built with that in mind too. Plug, pay, play. Nothing technical to know.

In 10y, there will be nothing to collect anymore. Because gaming will move to cloud platforms.
Software editors will go 100% for it because it will kill piracy and provide them recurrent income from subscriptions.
No more gaming PCs.

Gaming has tried so many times to move to the cloud and FAILED ...much like VR has tried several times to get adopted and never really been successful. The most recent VR attempt has has seen the greatest traction but even now you can see the novelty wearing off and people are left wondering if the stupidly high cost is worth it.

So no I don't ever see cloud gaming having any real adoption, if Google/Microsoft/nVidia cant make that shit happen then there is little to no chance of anyone else doing it, that aside the communication networks around the world simply cant support the speeds it needs out side of the US or other countries like Korea and Japan.

So like VR itll remain a niche thing even in 10years ...the reality here is fucking nothing much will change even in 20years with communication networks ..infrastructure is always going to lag behind.

I think that when more technical limitations are eliminated, that will in turn cause a few more adopters of cloud or VR each time, as it will work well enough for people that don't know any better. I have no interest in it myself, but there are alot of people that don't care how it works... only that they can get their fix in to play a game or get on the internet. So it doesn't matter the design quality or hardware performance as much as it satisfies the urge in the moment. So there might be a growing segment of people, like was said, of people buying their gadgets and not knowing anything on how things work. As this continues, more people will not understand what they are leaving behind, even the young generation in school learning how to do computers. I can tell you, I am interacting with some younger kids studying software engineering right now, and their abilities are concerning. There are alot of them coming to age. They play games. But I don't believe these games really push things all that hard. So it won't be that hard to satisfy them.

I think in the hardware being produced today, there will be more consolidation on chip design and more lack of really any variety in computer hardware products. I don't think there will be any memorable products in too long. I mean how much variety do you need in an instant-on-demand platform once the masses buy into it? Sadly, I have seen stuff like this happening, being too closely connected to the business.

Like others here, I am considering that I will be holding onto quality PC hardware for as long as I can keep them running, and have a few more thoughts on increasing the life of real computing.

Yes. And as I said, subscription services are already very popular. And regarding game ownership, there is no difference between those and streaming. So at the end, whether games will actually be streamed or just rented doesn't matter. And once subscription services kill individual game license purchase AND the service providers overcome the technical limitations, I don't see a reason from the consumer side to put up a strong resistance against streaming. All that's lost at that point is the option of offline play.

(disclaimer : I may have a distorted point of view because i work in the network field for a cloud company)

I know nothing about VR, so i can't really talk about it.

About cloud gaming,

Infrastructure used to be expensive. Because copper analog landline telephone system was expensive.
Most western countries built it between the 60's and the early 80's.
But a lot of countries just "skipped" this step.
Having a cellphone in Africa is way more common than having a traditional landline phone.
So deploying high speed 4G/5G allow large scale availability of high speed internet. Fast and cheap.
On the top of that, Chinese manufacturer Huawei is banned in some western countries. It is booming in Africa.
In these "mobile first" countries, internet access will be based on underpowered devices (phones, tablets, laptops), so online games could be made available via a cloud based system.

For western countries, market is more mature. Most successful games are already online games.
Some games can even force you to be online when playing single player campaign (Diablo III ten years ago... ballsy move in 2012)
In 2023 a lot of games on steam already requires 100+GB of files to download. Basically you already can't play games without super fast, always on internet. It's already here.

Also, everything is moving to a subscription based plan. Netflix, Prime, Playstation and Xbox... Car leasing.
I'm not saying that that customers will ask for it, but that publishing companies can force us to switch to an online system + subscription.
Like when Borderlands 3 came out on Epic 6month before. A lot of friends complained about it... and bought the game from Epic.
Now if most AAA game publishers decided to switch to a streaming system, nothing would stop them to do so. Customers would complain a lot. But they will ultimately switch to the system anyway to play the latest FIFA/Diablo4/HalfLife3.

And there is also the cost to keep in mind.
Back in 2006, a $600 GPU was obscene. Now it's the entry level price.
PC gaming is becoming increasingly expensive.
And i'm sure that between paying $2500+ for a gaming PC every 3 year or a $30 monthly subscription will push a lot of PC gamers to cloud gaming.
But it will be over time. Slowly.

I'm not talking about 4k 120fps. This is a niche feature. It already requires $3000+ gaming machine.
Most people (ie not tech enthusiasts) are just OK with lower resolution because it's already what they have today on a cheap PC.
Like most people are ok with spotify/youtube quality over HiFi home setup.
They probably will trade quality for frictionless usage (no install, minimal configuration, cost, mobility, device flexibility). "Easy" always beat "Quality" at scale.

People stealing content are afraid that they can't steal anymore.It was never about physical media or collectibility,it was just an excuse to hold onto the old days of getting everything from tpb 2 days BEFORE the official release while honest buyers paid $50 to play the game.Standard drm didn't work so devs will just move everything to their servers you need to access with a personal account to play a game and get your save files.
I don't blame them.

Vipachei wrote on 2023-02-08, 16:41:

People stealing content are afraid that they can't steal anymore.It was never about physical media or collectibility,it was just an excuse to hold onto the old days of getting everything from tpb 2 days BEFORE the official release while honest buyers paid $50 to play the game.Standard drm didn't work so devs will just move everything to their servers you need to access with a personal account to play a game and get your save files.
I don't blame them.

Uhm... no. Just... no.
I think CD Projekt Red (Cyberpunk) has shown that a DRM free game (one which was heavily pirated since launch!) can still be extremely successful.
DRM is a disease, one that actually affects legitimate buyers and more often than not, it does not affect people who pirate the game.

And, just to give my personal example: there was a point in the past, where I could barely afford to buy... anything (so, as you could imagine, buying games back then was completely out of the question).
But, as a teenager, I still wanted to play them, so... DC++, torrents were the only option I had.
Fast forward a few years, I got my degree, I got a job, then a better job... and somewhere around that time I completely stopped playing pirated games. So, at this point, I've been "clean" for the past 15 years.
My point is that, people who can actually afford it, will never bother with pirated games or any other type of pirated media. And, because of this, DRM is of no real benefit, since people who can't afford those games... will continue to be unable to afford them (with or without DRM).

bloodem wrote on 2023-02-08, 16:59:

it does not affect people who pirate the game.

Sorry but bs.How many people played Diablo 3 who didn't pay for it?

Vipachei wrote on 2023-02-08, 17:06:

Sorry but bs.How many people played Diablo 3 who didn't pay for it?

Not sure why that matters and why you think it contradicts what I said in my previous post. 😀

Vipachei wrote on 2023-02-08, 17:06:

bloodem wrote on 2023-02-08, 16:59:

it does not affect people who pirate the game.

Sorry but bs.How many people played Diablo 3 who didn't pay for it?

people did it on consoles or with switch emulators afaik, also afaik the PC diablo 3 was messy because of their "DRM" (keeping it very server dependent when not needed as the console versions show)

plenty of games with weak DRM or no DRM have sold incredibly well these past 10 years, so it's easy to say that it affects much positively,
Witcher 3 had no DRM from day 1 and was an incredible success in terms of sales for many years,

the price of the v5 6000 is a bit absurd, I mean it's a very cool piece of kit, definitely not for me!
I

bloodem wrote on 2023-02-08, 17:16:

Not sure why that matters and why you think it contradicts what I said in my previous post. 😀

Because it's bs.Piracy ends with online only games that need part or 100% of the game on their servers with online accounts.

SPBHM wrote on 2023-02-08, 17:17:

people did it on consoles or with switch emulators afaik, also afaik the PC diablo 3 was messy because of their "DRM" (keeping it very server dependent when not needed as the console versions show)

When did they do it,years after D3 was released?Diablo 4 is also online only so it couldn't have been that much of a failure and remember it was released in 2012 and now it's 2023.If it works for Blizzard it will definitely work for other big companies.

Vipachei wrote on 2023-02-08, 17:27:

SPBHM wrote on 2023-02-08, 17:17:

people did it on consoles or with switch emulators afaik, also afaik the PC diablo 3 was messy because of their "DRM" (keeping it very server dependent when not needed as the console versions show)

When did they do it,years after D3 was released?Diablo 4 is also online only so it couldn't have been that much of a failure and remember it was released in 2012 and now it's 2023.If it works for Blizzard it will definitely work for other big companies.

the game (diablo 3) was on ps3 and xbox 360 a year after the PC, which are heavily pirated platforms, same for switch later on
and as I said the PC launch was a mess because of the "DRM", definitely at the beginning the paying customer on PC lost more than gained with this server dependency

Vipachei wrote on 2023-02-08, 17:27:

When did they do it,years after D3 was released?Diablo 4 is also online only so it couldn't have been that much of a failure and remember it was released in 2012 and now it's 2023.If it works for Blizzard it will definitely work for other big companies.

Yes, it works for Blizzard, just as CD Project Red's games have worked for them, while being DRM free. So... what does that tell you? Is piracy the issue, or is there something more to it? 😉
Again, people who can't afford buying games will NOT buy them: with or without DRM.

acl wrote on 2023-02-08, 16:35:

(disclaimer : I may have a distorted point of view because i work in the network field for a cloud company) […]
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(disclaimer : I may have a distorted point of view because i work in the network field for a cloud company)

I know nothing about VR, so i can't really talk about it.

About cloud gaming,

Infrastructure used to be expensive. Because copper analog landline telephone system was expensive.
Most western countries built it between the 60's and the early 80's.
But a lot of countries just "skipped" this step.
Having a cellphone in Africa is way more common than having a traditional landline phone.
So deploying high speed 4G/5G allow large scale availability of high speed internet. Fast and cheap.
On the top of that, Chinese manufacturer Huawei is banned in some western countries. It is booming in Africa.
In these "mobile first" countries, internet access will be based on underpowered devices (phones, tablets, laptops), so online games could be made available via a cloud based system.

For western countries, market is more mature. Most successful games are already online games.
Some games can even force you to be online when playing single player campaign (Diablo III ten years ago... ballsy move in 2012)
In 2023 a lot of games on steam already requires 100+GB of files to download. Basically you already can't play games without super fast, always on internet. It's already here.

Also, everything is moving to a subscription based plan. Netflix, Prime, Playstation and Xbox... Car leasing.
I'm not saying that that customers will ask for it, but that publishing companies can force us to switch to an online system + subscription.
Like when Borderlands 3 came out on Epic 6month before. A lot of friends complained about it... and bought the game from Epic.
Now if most AAA game publishers decided to switch to a streaming system, nothing would stop them to do so. Customers would complain a lot. But they will ultimately switch to the system anyway to play the latest FIFA/Diablo4/HalfLife3.

And there is also the cost to keep in mind.
Back in 2006, a $600 GPU was obscene. Now it's the entry level price.
PC gaming is becoming increasingly expensive.
And i'm sure that between paying $2500+ for a gaming PC every 3 year or a $30 monthly subscription will push a lot of PC gamers to cloud gaming.
But it will be over time. Slowly.

I'm not talking about 4k 120fps. This is a niche feature. It already requires $3000+ gaming machine.
Most people (ie not tech enthusiasts) are just OK with lower resolution because it's already what they have today on a cheap PC.
Like most people are ok with spotify/youtube quality over HiFi home setup.
They probably will trade quality for frictionless usage (no install, minimal configuration, cost, mobility, device flexibility). "Easy" always beat "Quality" at scale.

Thanks for adding your perspective. Here in the west we forget how most of the world is experiencing the internet revolution in a completely different way.

I work at a software company that makes consumer products. One of our (I say "our" but I don't have anything to do with it) most successful products is huge in India. The Andriod client is how 90% or more of users access it... and they often use andriod OS versions that were released 5+ years ago to do it. Cheap handsets are how the vast majority of human beings have found the internet. The value of a user in south east Asia is much less than a user in the States or wester Europe... based mostly on add dollars and perceptions of purchasing power ect. But that gap will likely close as more countries modernize. The nexus of global consumerism could very well shift from US and western Europe to Asia and Africa based only on the sheer size of the market.

And when that happens, yeah, a middle class African family with mobile devices will probably be interested in game streaming to their devices and their smart TV.

SPBHM wrote on 2023-02-08, 17:30:

the game (diablo 3) was on ps3 and xbox 360 a year after the PC, which are heavily pirated platforms, same for switch later on
and as I said the PC launch was a mess because of the "DRM", definitely at the beginning the paying customer on PC lost more than gained with this server dependency

You mean the campaign mode for switch that you also need to buy?

bloodem wrote on 2023-02-08, 17:31:

Again, people who can't afford buying games will NOT buy them: with or without DRM.

Yes thieves will steal no matter what.But thieves won't get a game when the whole content is online only.People on reddit tpb/piracy are mighty pissed about that;)
Can't afford to buy a $50 game but can buy a $1000 rig?GTFO.

Vipachei wrote on 2023-02-08, 17:47:

SPBHM wrote on 2023-02-08, 17:30:

the game (diablo 3) was on ps3 and xbox 360 a year after the PC, which are heavily pirated platforms, same for switch later on
and as I said the PC launch was a mess because of the "DRM", definitely at the beginning the paying customer on PC lost more than gained with this server dependency

You mean the campaign mode for switch that you also need to buy?

I don't know what you mean, but my understanding is that on PC even to play single player you need to be connected to their server,
on Xbox 360, PS3 and following consoles this was never needed.

and due to emulation people have been playing the Switch version on PCs (pirated or not, it doesn't make a difference in this case)
PS3 and Xbox 360 are also emulated, but I don't know how well it runs on that, on the Switch emulator it seems to run well.

in any case this is way offtopic,

SPBHM wrote on 2023-02-08, 18:00:

I don't know what you mean

The fact that campaign was extremely short compared to adv so stealing D3 was like stealing Q3 with the SP campaign only.Entirely pointless.

Vipachei wrote on 2023-02-08, 17:49:

Yes thieves will steal no matter what.But thieves won't get a game when the whole content is online only.People on reddit tpb/piracy are mighty pissed about that;)
Can't afford to buy a $50 game but can buy a $1000 rig?GTFO.

Yes, many people in the world will only be able to afford the "$1000 rig" through enormous sacrifice (plus a 36-60 month bank loan; ask me how I know! )
For these people, paying $50 for a game (which is actually more than the monthly payment for the aforementioned $1000 rig) is simply not possible . But the teenager using that computer will not care, he will still try his best to play that AAA popular game that his mates are playing. Sure, it will barely be playable on his $1000 rig (if 15 FPS can even be called playable), but for that kid it will still be an amazing experience, one that he will remember for the rest of his life (again, ask me how I know).

It's hard to quantify just how much that kid and others like him hurt the developers by not being able to buy that game and acting like "thieves" (although, this kid did buy all games he previously pirated when he got to a point where he could afford them).

Now, let's assume that those games had been online only... Here's the million dollar question: would the kid actually pay the $50 to buy the game (i.e.: would the development company actually benefit from implementing this complicated and costly DRM)? No... of course he wouldn't... This kid, who shall remain nameless, received the equivalent of ~ 20 cents a day (not everyday, though) to buy food @ school. So, of course, the kid will NOT be able to play the game, but the company will still not receive the $50 for their effort to implement the DRM. Win-win situation?

Anyway, as it was pointed out, this is way off topic... and it's a complicated situation that one can only understand if one has actually lived through it.

bloodem wrote on 2023-02-08, 18:27:

Yes, many people in the world will only be able to afford the "$1000 rig" through enormous sacrifice (plus a 36-60 month bank loan; ask me how I know! )
For these people, paying $50 for a game (which is actually more than the monthly payment for the aforementioned $1000 rig) is simply not possible.

So now we came to this and crying a river for poor gamers in poverty who sacrificed their lives to buy the rig but suddenly can't afford a game for fraction of the cost.
Also promoting all this on Vogons that's an actively anti-piracy forum with people routinely buying $50 parts built in 1990.Yeah,enough said and my point stands.Devs are fed up with thieves and the world is going to move in the "u cant steal stuff stored on my server" direction because of this.