I have a theory (more like speculation really) that tantalums on "newer" boards like 386 and 486 explode due to voltage spikes, not because of aging. In particular I have noticed that most of the time it's the caps on the -12V line that pop, followed by the 12V ones. And it usually happens when they are rated up to 16V rather than, say, 25V. Failures on 5V/-5V lines are much less common in my experience, and those are usually rated at 10V or more.
So, the fact that the explosions seem more likely to occur either on lines that are poorly regulated (it is common to see the -12V being out of whack in older PSUs) or when there is a smaller safety margin in the rating of the capacitor (16V for -12V/12V) leads me to believe that voltage spikes might be the cause behind the explosions.
The tantalum issue on 80's IBM boards and expansion cards is way more frequent, so that is probably a completely different problem, more related to the manufacturing of the caps.