dr_st wrote:You are right that it would have no benefit if everyone were rational, but since not everyone is rational (in fact most people are not rational, in fact, even you and me are not rational), and not everyone snipes, snipers have the advantage.
But I decided to delete most of my post; the fewer people learn the benefits of sniping, the better my chances are. 😜
🤣, well that doesn't help, and means I can't reply without giving away what you said 😀 (I did see it though, then had family business to attend so couldn't reply immediately 😀).
It doesn't matter though... as I said, it only applies if all the other bidders don't put their highest bid in (i.e they don't understand how auctions work). All it takes is for one other sniper and you enter a sniper bidding war with only one battle right at the end... and unless you are there watching it and increasing your bid in the last few seconds, you have no counter to someone elses higher bid. Rule 1 kicks in. Sniping or not. So it boils down to what type of bidders the others are and if they snipe higher than you. 10 years ago there wasn't much snipe bidding so being an early adopter was worth it. These days pretty much every auction I see that sells is sniped. Occasionally someone gets lucky with no other bidders, and in those situations you never know what they were willing to go up to. If there is only one bidder, doesn't matter if they sniped or not. If there is more than one we are at rule 1 again.
The psychology is very much still there, the only difference is you have changed the playing field and rather than competing against non-snipers or bidders you think may or may not be interested in the auction, you are now competing against other snipers, all of which have their cards close to their chest which basically means you are playing against poker faces with nothing to go by. As a result, you put in a lower bid than you normally would and risk missing out, then you will be annoyed with yourself because you know you could have gone higher but didn't think there was any interest and in the last min another sniper puts a higher bid in... after this happens a few times you resort to having to put a price you are happy to pay for it and hope it is the highest. Rule 1! If you want to win, and don't put your highest bid in, you may not if someone else is higher... sniping or not.
On visibility, I don't think ebay works like this. If it did, you would only see auctions with bids at the top of searches... maybe localised, but this doesn't happen on my ebay searches. I get the sponsored items and sometimes some BIN's... and then it is ordered by how soon the auction ends. I can see what others are watching, I see what others have viewed that ebay considers 'similar' auctions...
Heisenberg, if you view it, ebay logs it, only thing to do is use third-party viewer or clear your cookies after you view each listing... in which case only works if all bidders do this to hide the fact that they are viewing auction items similar to what they just viewed. So in this scenario sniping makes no difference because you have viewed it in the first place and it is out of your control if someone else views it or not. What you want pay for something shouldn't be dictated by the fact the auction has any bids or not already... only playing a game with yourself in this case, do you really want it or not? If so pay with what you are happy paying for it. You will only get the best price if no other person wants it more... Rule 1 😉
It's a strange psychology, like the Monty Halls problem, on the surface it doesn't make sense...however the bottom line are the rules which are the basic principles of an auction (how auctions work!). Given rule 2 (earliest bidder wins if final bid same between two bidders), this actually makes snipers more likely to loose to someone who bid the same earlier. They didn't need to snipe, and in fact waiting until the last couple of seconds meant they lost it and couldn’t counter.
Snipers are in a massive self-inflicted bubble of psychological games with themselves and other snipers... think of any scenario as a sniper that you could possibly win. All of them trumped by a higher bidder putting a bid down a week before...a second before, or a second after....and then we are straight back to the first principles of an auction... highest bidder, or earliest bidder if same bid wins. Rules 1 and 2. Doesn't matter if they were a sniper or not 😉
Shagittarius wrote:The reason to snipe bid is because a lot of people selling on ebay bid on their own items. So you wait till there is 5 seconds left and bid so they cant run you up.
Shill bidding has been around since the dawn of ebay, and shill bidders can snipe? Shill sniping would be the only way a seller could guarantee not to sell an item for less than they want to by being the highest bidder (Rule 1) so your sniping doesn't stop it from happening. Of course they could guarantee from an early stage they would get the price by bidding early on a price they want it to go for.. Rule 2. No need for shill sniping, and other snipers still need to beat the sellers price so end up competing against each other, rule 1, beating the highest bidder is what is important. This could have been done at any point during the auction. Doesn't need to be within last few seconds.
If a seller doesn't put a reserve or opening bid something close to what they want to sell it for, that’s there loss and potentially your gain... but sniping had nothing to do with it. Still another higher bidder will beat you.
Essentially sniping makes no difference what so ever! It boils down to Rule 1 and Rule 2... you can't get around them. Just put what you want to pay and be done with it... no worrying about being just slightly outbid (it is what it is... if it happens, it happens) and no worries about missing the auction. Your competing with other bidders, snipers or not. Either someone wanted it more than you and was happy to pay more, or you should have put what you are happy to go up to avoid missing out on a price you would have paid. Unless the auction is lost by less than the increment, you will never know how high the winning bidder bid. If it goes for less than an increment you should have put more in the first place and you would have won... Rule 1... highest bidder wins.