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Reply 100 of 166, by BitWrangler

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the3dfxdude wrote on 2022-01-24, 18:20:

It is a problem in design at advanced nodes right now. Sometimes the design teams do model the lifetime due to aging, heat and electromigration out to 10 years. I'm not sure if I've really seen 20 years, I'd guess they'd have to severely under budget performance for more life span. Frankly, in the consumer space, I doubt they really care once it's out of warranty. But they do for critical systems like car and aerospace, so they might be hardened against it some. But any modeling here is definitely a guess. I think 3nm is going to be a problem, where some are pushing to get better models done now. I can't remember exactly, but a few years ago, I was hearing some numbers that led me to guess the actual estimated lifespan of some of the high performance stuff is probably 7 years, and that is with redundancy built in. I started telling people to buy the lower performance, low power variants if you want stuff that last a long time, but even then they cut corners there too, or maybe they are the poor silicon versions of the higher performance part anyway 🙁 So coupled with packaging & integration that is hard to deal with for the average person for repair, I do not trust current stuff to be made to be around as long.

Yes, on 486 dice we only have to worry about several millions of charge carriers diffusing into the substrate further away than 5V can push across the junction. In advanced and future nodes, it's more worrying about a few dozen migrating further away than 0.5V can push. In the former case, there's much more "averaging" of bulk behaviour happening, in the latter case, it's much more prone to disruption by statistical oddities... i.e. they all flip heads, instead of about half heads, half tails. Then your bathtub failure curve is looking like a V. This shorter lifespan doesn't really make anything cheaper, since now they're pricing in warranty replacement costs for the one in 20, maybe one in 10 CPUs that will have really athletic charge carriers, just sprinting away from those junctions.

Unicorn herding operations are proceeding, but all the totes of hens teeth and barrels of rocking horse poop give them plenty of hiding spots.

Reply 101 of 166, by STX

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The hard drive in my best Pentium III PC just started failing, so I get to open up the case and swap in a new drive. Fun! To me, component failures are part of the overall retrocomputing experience (especially in this case because the failing hard drive is an IBM Deskstar). I don't let component failures stress me out because I'm only using my old PCs for fun, not work, and if I run out of spare parts, I can use emulation.

(Sorry for changing the subject.) My biggest problem in this hobby is not a scarcity of working parts but a scarcity of friends who want to play old multiplayer games. I anticipate that friends who want to play old multiplayer games will become even more scarce in the future.

Reply 102 of 166, by BitWrangler

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STX wrote on 2022-01-27, 18:10:

(especially in this case because the failing hard drive is an IBM Deskstar)

pom pom pom pompapom pompapom...

Unicorn herding operations are proceeding, but all the totes of hens teeth and barrels of rocking horse poop give them plenty of hiding spots.

Reply 104 of 166, by BitWrangler

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Not in John Williams' score 🤣

Unicorn herding operations are proceeding, but all the totes of hens teeth and barrels of rocking horse poop give them plenty of hiding spots.

Reply 105 of 166, by digger

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gaffa2002 wrote on 2022-01-24, 17:29:

I see it more or less like this: Resources on Earth are limited, so in order to make new stuff, we have at some point to use materials from existing stuff.

That won't be a problem once we start mining asteroids. 😁

Reply 108 of 166, by bloodem

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The Serpent Rider wrote on 2022-01-21, 13:59:

It's interesting how 14nm and smaller fabricated hardware will survive 10+ years though.

I just discontinued a pretty big server cluster (32 dedicated servers) that I had running since 2015 (based on Xeon E3-1280 v5, one of the first 14nm server CPUs).
This cluster was extremely CPU intensive (full-text search oriented Java app), it has basically spent the last 6+ years at a constant 90-100% CPU usage (with 60-70 degrees temps).
As far as I can remember, only 2 or 3 servers had issues throughout these years - the datacenter technicians replaced a motherboard, a RAID controller & RAM. However, all CPUs worked perfectly without a hitch. In fact, most of the servers actually had a 3+ year uptime.
I was forced to replace them because they were completely obsolete and our requirements had grown a lot, but other than that... they were still in perfect working order.

What I'm trying to say is that, if these first generation 14nm CPUs lasted this long in these pretty harsh conditions, your typical 14nm desktop CPU will probably outlive most of us. 😁

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Reply 109 of 166, by creepingnet

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digger wrote on 2022-01-27, 22:24:
gaffa2002 wrote on 2022-01-24, 17:29:

I see it more or less like this: Resources on Earth are limited, so in order to make new stuff, we have at some point to use materials from existing stuff.

That won't be a problem once we start mining asteroids. 😁

And really won't be when the drones fail to hit the asteroid. 😁

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Reply 110 of 166, by digger

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creepingnet wrote on 2022-02-04, 22:21:
digger wrote on 2022-01-27, 22:24:
gaffa2002 wrote on 2022-01-24, 17:29:

I see it more or less like this: Resources on Earth are limited, so in order to make new stuff, we have at some point to use materials from existing stuff.

That won't be a problem once we start mining asteroids. 😁

And really won't be when the drones fail to hit the asteroid. 😁

Just mine it so quickly and intensively that it will have shrunk down to something small enough to burn up into the atmosphere, once it gets here. 😁

Reply 111 of 166, by BitWrangler

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Guys, guys, I got it sorted, just need to tie one resource rich asteroid to one on the other side of the asteroid belt of about the same mass with a long piece of string that intersects the earths orbit, then when the earth gets into position, hook it to the top of the space elevator and give it a bit of a yoink... easy.

Unicorn herding operations are proceeding, but all the totes of hens teeth and barrels of rocking horse poop give them plenty of hiding spots.

Reply 112 of 166, by The Serpent Rider

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And really won't be when the drones fail to hit the asteroid.

What drones? In reality, disposable meatbags with pickaxes will be send there.

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Reply 113 of 166, by chris2021

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Having not read the whole thread, I just laugh at the question. What will I do when all my hardware fails? O please just cook new ic's of course. In 20+ years everyone will be able to on their kitchen table.

(OK, perusing the replies just prior to mine, I think I really need to read the whole thread. More then just the op is laughable, it seems 😀

Reply 114 of 166, by The Serpent Rider

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In 20+ years everyone will be able to on their kitchen table.

Very much doubtful. We've already effed up flying cars and hoverboards.

Get up, come on get down with the sickness
Open up your hate, and let it flow into me

Reply 115 of 166, by digger

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The Serpent Rider wrote on 2022-02-05, 15:19:

In 20+ years everyone will be able to on their kitchen table.

Very much doubtful. We've already effed up flying cars and hoverboards.

Hey now, don't count out flying cars just yet. The Swedes are on it! 😉

Reply 116 of 166, by chris2021

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The Serpent Rider wrote on 2022-02-05, 15:19:

In 20+ years everyone will be able to on their kitchen table.

Very much doubtful. We've already effed up flying cars and hoverboards.

Everything gets effed up initially. Wherever the apparati that cooked early ic's wound up, I'm sure some of it survived, someone needs to dismantle and shrink it down. Easy, no?

Reply 117 of 166, by The Serpent Rider

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digger wrote:

Hey now, don't count out flying cars just yet. The Swedes are on it!

"Jetson ONE"

I see what they did there. Well, hopefully they'll make it within official Jetsons timeline.

Get up, come on get down with the sickness
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Reply 118 of 166, by Tetrium

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The Serpent Rider wrote on 2022-02-05, 15:19:

In 20+ years everyone will be able to on their kitchen table.

Very much doubtful. We've already effed up flying cars and hoverboards.

and VR 😜

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Reply 119 of 166, by digger

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The Serpent Rider wrote on 2022-02-05, 17:36:
digger wrote:

Hey now, don't count out flying cars just yet. The Swedes are on it!

"Jetson ONE"

I see what they did there. Well, hopefully they'll make it within official Jetsons timeline.

Don't worry, though. You don't need flying cars. But you *will* need a different kind of software.