My GPU gon' live forever... wait...

... jinxed it dammit.

Looks like cryptocurrency isn't doing too well, if the bubble has bursted things might start to slowly get better as miners abandon ship.

Could still be just a shock event I guess, stonks are panicking too.

Remember when 570s flooded the market during the prior crypto crash? Would be hillarious if 5000 series card had a huge dump on 2nd hand and 6500xt sold like shit 🤣

appiah4 wrote on 2022-01-23, 08:09:

Remember when 570s flooded the market during the prior crypto crash? Would be hillarious if 5000 series card had a huge dump on 2nd hand and 6500xt sold like shit 🤣

The 6500xt is the saddest GPU launch in the last 2 decades.

Sombrero wrote on 2022-01-23, 07:38:

Looks like cryptocurrency isn't doing too well, if the bubble has bursted things might start to slowly get better as miners abandon ship.

Could still be just a shock event I guess, stonks are panicking too.

It already happened once. Around 2014 for whatever reason some miners abandoned ship and I got myself 3 brand new HD7850 for the price of one.
I kept one myself and sold the other two for half the market price. I'm not a scalper and couldn't offer warranty so I think it was reasonable.
I essentially got my new graphics card for free and after selling my HD5770 Vapor-X (short version) I used until then, I still ended up with around $50 profit.

It'd be nice to pull it off again.

Looks like cryptocurrency isn't doing too well, if the bubble has bursted things might start to slowly get better as miners abandon ship.

Just thing about the NFT market...

RandomStranger wrote on 2022-01-23, 14:08:

It already happened once. Around 2014 for whatever reason some miners abandoned ship and I got myself 3 brand new HD7850 for the […]
Show full quote

Sombrero wrote on 2022-01-23, 07:38:

Looks like cryptocurrency isn't doing too well, if the bubble has bursted things might start to slowly get better as miners abandon ship.

Could still be just a shock event I guess, stonks are panicking too.

It already happened once. Around 2014 for whatever reason some miners abandoned ship and I got myself 3 brand new HD7850 for the price of one.
I kept one myself and sold the other two for half the market price. I'm not a scalper and couldn't offer warranty so I think it was reasonable.
I essentially got my new graphics card for free and after selling my HD5770 Vapor-X (short version) I used until then, I still ended up with around $50 profit.

It'd be nice to pull it off again.

It has happened twice before, 2018 and 2014 for lesser degree. Bitcoin has had earlier runs but miners weren't yet really a thing. Cryptos increase insane amounts in value every 4 or so years, bubble bursts and then drop from their highs during the next ~9 months. That's when the miners sell their GPU's, it's no longer profitable.

But unlike previous times there hasn't been a clear blow off top and the prices haven't increased as much as many expected. The whole cycle has been a bit odd and different than the previous ones. That means the miners might not sell their stuff yet, there's uncertainty is the cycle truly over yet or not. And even if the bubble has burst, the worst case scenario I can see is that low season is not severe enough to make it unprofitable for the miners at least in the short term, extending the crappy GPU market for who knows how long.

BEEN_Nath_58 wrote on 2022-01-23, 15:56:

Just thing about the NFT market...

What about that, don't think you can mine those jpegs. Though I don't know much about them, NFT's seem so stupid to me that I've pretty much ignored them.

ODwilly wrote on 2022-01-23, 08:19:

appiah4 wrote on 2022-01-23, 08:09:

Remember when 570s flooded the market during the prior crypto crash? Would be hillarious if 5000 series card had a huge dump on 2nd hand and 6500xt sold like shit 🤣

The 6500xt is the saddest GPU launch in the last 2 decades.

Intels Starfighter was likely the saddest.

Intels Alchemist launch will likely be the saddest
If it releases, I recall January release timelines which are now already being mentioned in hush tones as actually becoming Q2

When we get to Q2 see if we get rumors of Q3 and so on

Sombrero wrote on 2022-01-23, 07:38:

Looks like cryptocurrency isn't doing too well, if the bubble has bursted things might start to slowly get better as miners abandon ship.

Could still be just a shock event I guess, stonks are panicking too.

Yes it's more closely coupled to general investor sentiment than crypto bros would like. Stonks dive, crypto dives. Things might be rough all round for a bit, businessinsider had a piece about it being a triple bubble going to burst. I've been wary of markets all the last year because it was reminding me too much of the dot com bubble, when there were also pundits saying in effect "shovel cash onto this dumpster fire, see how bright we can make it burn!" valuations way too high for the earning potential of the business model.

Sombrero wrote on 2022-01-23, 16:20:

It has happened twice before, 2018 and 2014 for lesser degree. Bitcoin has had earlier runs but miners weren't yet really a thing. Cryptos increase insane amounts in value every 4 or so years, bubble bursts and then drop from their highs during the next ~9 months. That's when the miners sell their GPU's, it's no longer profitable.

But unlike previous times there hasn't been a clear blow off top and the prices haven't increased as much as many expected. The whole cycle has been a bit odd and different than the previous ones. That means the miners might not sell their stuff yet, there's uncertainty is the cycle truly over yet or not. And even if the bubble has burst, the worst case scenario I can see is that low season is not severe enough to make it unprofitable for the miners at least in the short term, extending the crappy GPU market for who knows how long.

The current GPU shortage isn't caused by the miners only. They has a huge role, but China, where most of the manufacturing is has a failed (zero COVID) lock down policy. So there is a decreased amount of capacity for graphics card production because of chinese lock downs AND an increased demand because of mining. The former is why I don't like centralized systems (and there are several reason's why I absolutely abhor that this centralization happened in China).

You'd think we'd have learned when various fires, tsunamis and earthquakes wiped out "unicorn" facilities that the entire industry leaned on, but nope.

BitWrangler wrote on 2022-01-23, 16:58:

You'd think we'd have learned when various fires, tsunamis and earthquakes wiped out "unicorn" facilities that the entire industry leaned on, but nope.

Gotta be lean secondary suppliers and backups cost money

We did. Problem is, these production shortages almost never hurt the manufacturer, only the end user. When that tsunami washed away hard drive factories ~10-ish years ago, they just raised their prices and never let them go back all the way down.

There's gonna be a fab in the US now, but I'd feel more comfortable with 5 or 6 concentrations of tech manufacturing spread around the globe, so we're at least a large space rock away from the stone age, not one of those smaller ones that we barely know about until they're almost on top of us.

RandomStranger wrote on 2022-01-23, 17:07:

We did. Problem is, these production shortages almost never hurt the manufacturer, only the end user.

Gotta love the China price conundrum

Proper consistent policy could have enforced some distribution but when shortages drive more profit we have the wrong motivations

RandomStranger wrote on 2022-01-23, 16:55:

Sombrero wrote on 2022-01-23, 16:20:

It has happened twice before, 2018 and 2014 for lesser degree. Bitcoin has had earlier runs but miners weren't yet really a thing. Cryptos increase insane amounts in value every 4 or so years, bubble bursts and then drop from their highs during the next ~9 months. That's when the miners sell their GPU's, it's no longer profitable.

But unlike previous times there hasn't been a clear blow off top and the prices haven't increased as much as many expected. The whole cycle has been a bit odd and different than the previous ones. That means the miners might not sell their stuff yet, there's uncertainty is the cycle truly over yet or not. And even if the bubble has burst, the worst case scenario I can see is that low season is not severe enough to make it unprofitable for the miners at least in the short term, extending the crappy GPU market for who knows how long.

The current GPU shortage isn't caused by the miners only. They has a huge role, but China, where most of the manufacturing is has a failed (zero COVID) lock down policy. So there is a decreased amount of capacity for graphics card production because of chinese lock downs AND an increased demand because of mining. The former is why I don't like centralized systems (and there are several reason's why I absolutely abhor that this centralization happened in China).

I thought The 'chips' in question are fabbed in Taiwan and South Korea. Not China?

Large scale mining operations use ASICS, not GPU's. It's mainly only the small time 'home' miners which use arrays of GPU's, which no doubt contributed to the shortage... but mainly pandemic and the cause for huge numbers of businesses to supply their workers with laptops for home working which cause something like 26% more computers to be sold in 2020 and the industry just wasn't prepared for that kind of mass demand. Perfect storm for the problem. imho.

rmay635703 wrote on 2022-01-23, 16:27:

Intels Starfighter was likely the saddest. […]
Show full quote

ODwilly wrote on 2022-01-23, 08:19:

appiah4 wrote on 2022-01-23, 08:09:

Remember when 570s flooded the market during the prior crypto crash? Would be hillarious if 5000 series card had a huge dump on 2nd hand and 6500xt sold like shit 🤣

The 6500xt is the saddest GPU launch in the last 2 decades.

Intels Starfighter was likely the saddest.

Intels Alchemist launch will likely be the saddest
If it releases, I recall January release timelines which are now already being mentioned in hush tones as actually becoming Q2

When we get to Q2 see if we get rumors of Q3 and so on

I think O'Dwilly is referring to the fact that AMD wrote a blog about how 4GB just wasn't enough for gamers these days to have a stab at the competitors... then released a low-end GPU with 4GB... then deleted their blog, which in escence makes the 6500XT a quick shove out the door GPU which the manufacturer has already said isn't up to their own standards of what a GPU in 2021 should be.... face palm.

https://videocardz.com/newz/amd-removes-its-b … 6500xt-graphics

Still they are not the only ones clutching at straws atm.. nVidia are also rehashing their dated architecture for a 'new' 3050... and even in their own literature, compared the RT performance against previous nVidia cards which don't even support RT... 🤣

so while it does feel Intel will probably miss their own Q1 2022 release date for their discrete GPU's at least they have something (which apparently performs better than first thought) and (as of writing), still not missed the Q1 deadline with something that isn't vapourware.

OEM's have reference models to start making their versions, and word on the street is that laptops with integrated ARK will be released by the end of Q1 2022. So ironically Intel (if that does happen) probably have the least face palm/lol of all GPU vendors currently...

What a sad state of affairs on the part of all 3 vendors... 🙁

spiroyster wrote on 2022-01-23, 17:24:

Large scale mining operations use ASICS, not GPU's.

For bitcoin sure, but etherium is still being mined by GPU's even by the large scale players. Unless it's gotten too hard already.

spiroyster wrote on 2022-01-23, 17:24:

I thought The 'chips' in question are fabbed in Taiwan and South Korea. Not China?

The chips are. But somewhere they have to be soldered onto the PCB, the cooler have to be screwed onto the whole thing and it has to be put in a box.
I have an HD4670 in it's original box, It was my main GPU around 2010. The GPU was manufactured by TSMC, the PCB has "Made in Taiwan" printed on, but the whole package (what's printed onto the box) is "Made in China". I also have an ASUS 7300GT in it's box. The GPU was probably made by TSMC, "PCB Made in China", box "Made in China". Geforce 8800 Ultra, the PCB states "Made in China" (twice!). My RX480, GPU made by TSMC, on the PCB "Made in China".

It doesn't matter if certain parts are manufactured outside of China if the graphics card is assembled in China, boxed in China and shipped from China. Unless you want to buy a box of parts and assemble the graphics card yourself at home (still certain parts are manufactured in china).

Indeed, China is the problem. The majority of components and the assembly of those components is a Chinese matter and stuff for making electronics is going into China and coming out of it's component factories, but assembled products are not coming out of the country at a very fast rate. I know some people who have moved their electronics product assembly from China to America, specifically to keep the product availability up and quality control in place, with components coming into the country via air freight instead of by ship.

I know some people who have moved their electronics product assembly from China to America

Primary example of an "unequal distribution of work"