ElectroSoldier wrote on 32 minutes ago:No they wont.
The GPUs that are in high demand are not the GPUs people like gamers want to buy. Those will hit the market at a d […]
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Trashbytes wrote on Today, 10:16:Sure itll burst but ...if past experience with GPUs is any indicator prices wont go back to pre bubble pricing. […]
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ElectroSoldier wrote on Today, 10:00:
You would have to be desperate to buy at these prices.
The AI bubble will burst. They are dumping billions of dollars into the tech to run the AI models but there is no clear way to make any money from all that investment. Google Gemini is a really good example of this, it had to change the terms for the £18.99 subscription because it was giving to much away. It changed it to terms which limit what a user can do, or the amount they get.
Theyre struggling to monetise their businesses.
Sure itll burst but ...if past experience with GPUs is any indicator prices wont go back to pre bubble pricing.
Besides all the major fabs have retooled for HBM and have orders sold out till 2028 at this stage and they wont be able to retool back to DDR5 till at least late 2028. The AI bubble bursting isn't going to be as fast as the Dot Com bubble was, this one could take a while and I doubt the market fall out will be as front loaded as then either.
No I foresee us dealing with super shitty pricing for a good 5 year or more, Ram is also just one part of it, every thing hardware wise has gone into price gouging, from storage to power supplies we are not looking at a good time for DIY PCs.
I personally feel this has all been designed this way, nVidia clearly hit a wall in regards to how much raw uplift they can get from their tech and had to resort to using heavy AI to see any real improvement. Jensen is smart enough to see the writing on the wall and to take measures to make sure his company has a future.
So he with his buddies fabricates a problem so they can sell us the solution . .Eg streaming compute services.
No they wont.
The GPUs that are in high demand are not the GPUs people like gamers want to buy. Those will hit the market at a discount rate at first then once they all start folding there will be a fire sale. But desktop GPUs will remain high because demand will remain high. The companies making these enterprise GPUs are shifting production to supply the demand as so less desktop GPUs are being made.
Thats why the prices will stay high, you own demand.
That coupled with the fact that it will take a while for the companies to realise the ride has come to an end and they need to shift production to consumer level GPUs it will keep prices high until a recession.
GPUs is just an example, it counts for all the tech we use to build PCs.
Its not been designed this way, though it might look like that, it couldnt have been, they didnt know AI would become a thing before it became a thing.
nvidia jumped on it and in some ways fuelled it thats for sure with its enterprise level GPUs. Without them it wouldnt have been possible.
Thats why nvidia looked like it was pulling away from gamer cards. Its model of the next must be much better wasnt sustainable, not for nvidia but the ecosystem that sits around it.
Look at the power cable problems for instance. What they really needed was a case designed to hold the cards. GPU sag is another example. It needed an ecosystem to support its growth but has never had it, it couldnt share its ideas with case manufacturers otherwise its competition would get wind of it and ...
On the other hand there are not many people who can afford to buy the latest most powerful nvidia GPU. (pre bubble pricing) but they could afford to rent computing power. That guy who runs craft computing on youtube has proven this model and indeed has made a youtube channel on the back of the fact you dont need a local gpu to game. All you need is cheap crap and a powerful GPU somewhere, it doesnt have to be yours.
It has been designed this way and it happened exactly as they wanted it to, the entire AI thing has been known about for a long time they just never had a good way to push it to the masses.
AI was never actually the product, Compute was the product the entire time and AI handily requires a metric ton of it but don't believe for one second it needs the thousands of Data Centers they are building.
You know what does need the Data Centers ??
Selling Compute to people who can no longer afford PC hardware, on a monthly basis naturally at only $19.99 for 100 hours. These assholes LOVE recurring revenue streams and will sell their mother to get them or destroy an entire DIY market if it means they can sell it back to you as a subscription.
But sure go ahead and believe this all happened by accident or chance and that the oligarch's at the top with trillion dollar companies would never ever do something like PLAN ahead.
As for Subscription Streaming PCs ..over my cold dead corpse. I will sell everything and go off grid before I ever debase myself with a shitty Streaming PC, if I cant own it totally I don't want it.
This whole scenario played out with Jeff and his Pizza Party friends, people refused to believe the truth when it was presented to them ..these cretins at the top have zero morals or qualms about making you eat shit sandwiches and making you say you like it. (Just look at the utter horror GTA6 has become ...they are going to milk the gullible masses for every cent they can get, the same masses that love subscription services)