Reply 44980 of 56744, by HanJammer
- Rank
- Oldbie
Shreddoc wrote on 2022-06-04, 23:11:Your whole argument relies upon the assumption that the current situation will remain the same. That future generations of compu […]
Your whole argument relies upon the assumption that the current situation will remain the same. That future generations of computers for 30-50 years will still hold that property true: "I can play 2000s games natively".
Again I repeat, that is highly unlikely to eventuate. We have thousands of years of recorded history to prove the concept that the only constant, is Change.
In the year 2000, it was still quite easy to play games from 1980 "natively", with a few tweaks. i.e. exactly the same way you feel now, in 2022, about year 2000 games.
Add another 20-30 years to the equation, and that is almost certainly no longer the case.
I think you don't really get my point - so maybe in simpler words:
- stuff can be desired because of it's usability or because it's collectible - as for the usability I think I already explained it - there are no advantages of core2duo/athlon64 CPUs over modern CPUs, which may change in the future depending on what architecture will be available then, but I don't think AMD64 is not going anywhere anytime soon - it may be partially replaced with ARM, yeah, but still - so many AMD64 CPUs were made and they are so widespread - it won't be a problem to get them in 20-30 years even if they are no longer made - it's not really a problem with the 90s CPUs and production volume was so much lower back then. Also keep in mind that for example 2010 CPU is perfectly usable in 2022 for most of the time (in tasks like browsing the internet, text editing and so on) while you couldn't say the same about 1990 vs 2002 CPU.
As for CPUs being collectible... let's compare them to coins - some ancient coins are highly collectible because not much of them have been minted, on the other hand some even ancient coins were so widespread, they are not worth much today. But most modern (e.g. XX, XXI century) coins (unless they are specifically minted with collectors in mind or are special otherwise) won't be worth much simply because they are readly available in large volumes... So while some really rare variants of modern CPUs may be desired by collectors - they don't have more value usability-wise over other CPUs... It's not like they had any special features that allowed anything which regular CPUs couldn't do.
Do you get my point about Core2Duos/Pentium Ds being "a thing" (now or ever) now?
Even simpler:
(list is simplified of course, but you can see the pattern)
8088 CPUs: medium to low usability (compared to later and or modern CPUs) / high production volumes, easy to obtain / not that desirable: CHEAP
Ceramic PGA 286 CPUs: medium to low usability (compared to later and or modern CPUs) / low production volumes, hard to obtain / desirable as collectibles and for OE replacement in 5170s and similar: EXPENSIVE
Ceramic CLCC 286 CPUs: medium to low usability (compared to later and or modern CPUs) / low production volumes, hard to obtain / desirable as collectibles and for OE replacement in 5170s and similar: EXPENSIVE
Plastic PLCC 286 CPUs: medium to high usability (compared to later and or modern CPUs) / high production volumes, easy to obtain (even rare ones) / not desirable as collectibles: CHEAP
Ceramic PGA 386 CPUs: medium to high usability (compared to later and or modern CPUs) / medium production volumes, becoming hard to obtain / desirable as collectibles: prices currently skyrocketting
Plastic LQFP 386 CPU: medium to high usability (compared to later and or modern CPUs) / high production volumes, soldered on motherboards or adapters / not desirable as collectibles: CHEAP
486 stuff: medium to high usability (compared to later and or modern CPUs) / high production volumes, soldered on motherboards or adapters / not desirable as collectibles: CHEAP
exotic 486 stuff: medium to high usability (compared to later and or modern CPUs) / low production volumes / desirable as collectibles: VERY EXPENSIVE
Overdrive stuff: medium to high usability (compared to later and or modern CPUs) / low production volumes / desirable as collectibles: VERY EXPENSIVE
S4, S8 stuff: low to medium usability (compared to later and or modern CPUs) / low to medium production volumes / desirable as collectibles: becoming EXPENSIVE
S5, S7 stuff: medium to high usability (compared to later and or modern CPUs) / high production volumes / not desirable as collectibles: still CHEAP
exotic S7 stuff: medium to high usability (compared to later and or modern CPUs) / low to medium production volumes / desirable as collectibles: EXPENSIVE
Slot 1: medium to high usability (compared to later and or modern CPUs) / high to VERY high production volumes / not that desirable as collectibles: CHEAP
Slot A: medium to high usability (compared to later and or modern CPUs) / medium production volumes / semi desirable as collectibles: becoming EXPENSIVE
Socket A/Socket 370 stuff (unless more exotic Cyrix and similar stuff): medium to high usability (compared to later and or modern CPUs) / VERY high production volumes / not that desirable as collectibles: CHEAP
Early P4 era CPUs: low to medium usability (compared to later and or modern CPUs) / medium to high production volumes / not that desirable as collectibles: CHEAP
Basically everything more recent: low usability (compared to later and or modern CPUs) / VERY high production volumes / not that desirable as collectibles: CHEAP
Todays CPUs: low usability (compared to later and or modern CPUs) / VERY high production volumes / not that desirable as collectibles: will be CHEAP
See the pattern?
And it will be EXACTLY the same in 20-30 years regarding above CPUs
So in case of some EE CPUs - yeah, while I'm a bit surprised as they were not that rare - maybe lazy collectors are already willing to pay high sums on eBay... but other than that - regular CPUs will never have much value.
New items (October/November 2022) -> My Items for Sale