China is smart enough not to shoot it's own leg. Unlike... well, you know unlike who. My bet is that it will limit itself to angry statements, military training and maneuvers.

As long as Taiwan continues to show strength with a respectable military, a good economy and broad public support for their current form of government, the island will remain outside of Beijing's control. If any of those 3 legs of the stool becomes weak, then Beijing might try to take advantage of the situation and send "peacekeepers" to "restore order."

STX wrote on 2022-08-02, 15:55:

As long as Taiwan continues to show strength with a respectable military, a good economy and broad public support for their current form of government, the island will remain outside of Beijing's control. If any of those 3 legs of the stool becomes weak, then Beijing might try to take advantage of the situation and send "peacekeepers" to "restore order."

Taiwan is still Taiwan because China lets them be Taiwan. The Taiwanese government has to be infiltrated forward and backward with China agents. It's only a matter of time. China plays the long game. I speculate from a global perspective, no one is coming to save Taiwan, and from a Chinese perspective, Taiwan doesn't need saving.

To all folks here who are thinking about short play, long play, strategies and other smart activities I can only say that humans are dumb enough to destroy when everything goes fine and the same time smart enough to recover everything afterwards and make things even better. And while doing all these things, also to kill as much people as they can. 🙂

India sitting patiently there with about a third more ground troops than China, waiting for a wrong move, so they can swipe most of the Himalayan region.

India is practically a 4th superpower these days.

I don't understand why the U.S. administration is antagonizing China at a time of conflict with Russia. This is LBJ level statesmanship.

ThinkpadIL wrote on 2022-08-02, 19:50:

To all folks here who are thinking about short play, long play, strategies and other smart activities I can only say that humans are dumb enough to destroy when everything goes fine and the same time smart enough to recover everything afterwards and make things even better. And while doing all these things, also to kill as much people as they can. 🙂

As horrible as it sound .. the world could do with a few billion less humans to feed, now the hard choice is deciding which 2 billion go first.

China sure does have a lot of Bluster and Hot air these days, they are all about saving face and making it seem like the CCP is in control ...just look at the freefall their market is currently in for an idea of how "in" control the CCP really is. With that said .. the monetary situation China finds itself in could be resolved by a War, one might be thinking rightly that China is itching for a reason to begin one.

Taiwan isn't it, China doesnt see Taiwan as a separate entity they need to fight the world over but they will for sure use it as a means to test the worlds resolve.

How we react to their theatrics will decide which direction they go, but they have seen first hand how financially fucked they would be if they did decide to throw fists first, Russia being that example.

TrashPanda wrote on 2022-08-02, 22:07:

As horrible as it sound .. the world could do with a few billion less humans to feed, now the hard choice is deciding which 2 bi […]
Show full quote

ThinkpadIL wrote on 2022-08-02, 19:50:

To all folks here who are thinking about short play, long play, strategies and other smart activities I can only say that humans are dumb enough to destroy when everything goes fine and the same time smart enough to recover everything afterwards and make things even better. And while doing all these things, also to kill as much people as they can. 🙂

As horrible as it sound .. the world could do with a few billion less humans to feed, now the hard choice is deciding which 2 billion go first.

China sure does have a lot of Bluster and Hot air these days, they are all about saving face and making it seem like the CCP is in control ...just look at the freefall their market is currently in for an idea of how "in" control the CCP really is. With that said .. the monetary situation China finds itself in could be resolved by a War, one might be thinking rightly that China is itching for a reason to begin one.

Taiwan isn't it, China doesnt see Taiwan as a separate entity they need to fight the world over but they will for sure use it as a means to test the worlds resolve.

How we react to their theatrics will decide which direction they go, but they have seen first hand how financially fucked they would be if they did decide to throw fists first, Russia being that example.

There is no problem with food in the world and there is no problem with territory also. Simply when well-fed humans are getting bored they start to kill and loot each other because they are actually a predatory animals by their nature.

Errius wrote on 2022-08-02, 21:44:

I don't understand why the U.S. administration is antagonizing China at a time of conflict with Russia. This is LBJ level statesmanship.

Listening to people who claim to have knowledge of what our generals are thinking, it goes like this.

China wants to take Taiwan. But the PLA (People's Liberation Army) is still 5 years away from developing the sorts of amphibious landing and logistics capabilities that will be required for sustained action in Taiwan. So in the near term (5 years), time is on China's side. On the flip side, China's One Child Policy has absolutely wrecked their demographics, and they are facing a steeper demographic decline over the next 50 years than any other nation on Earth.

Additionally, Xi Jinping wants to "run" for an unprecedented 3rd term, as well as finally unify China for the 100th year celebration of the formation of the PLA. So basically, China's best chance is to invade Taiwan in 5 years while their strength is peaked, and for symbolic and political reasons.

As for why we don't just decide "Fuck it" and let China reassert their dominion over Taiwan, well, TSMC makes something like 95% of the worlds most advanced semiconductors. They are such a strategically important resource worldwide, that many people, both in Taiwan and outside, would rather burn all their facilities to the ground than let them fall into the hands of the CCP. Putting aside how much of a technological advantage that would give China overnight, it would also allow China to blatantly steal the IP of nearly every American tech firm that went fabless over the last decade.

So the reasoning of the warhawks is to set off the war over Taiwan earlier rather than later. If China of today takes the bait, they will fail. It may result is the destruction of large portions of TSMC's facilities, but that result is still preferable to allowing them to fall into the hands of the CCP. It's not even incompatible with advantaging domestic silicon production. Suddenly those 2nd or 3rd rate Intel processes look a lot better with TSMC in smoking ruins and Samsung in South Korea still firmly within reach of China's sphere of influence.

Personally I'm far more skeptical of US competence in any conflict with China. I'm also far less skeptical about China's capabilities. IMHO they just want it more. Which may let them punch above their weight, inspiring them to feats of basic competence the US seems incapable of anymore.

We'll see I guess.

ThinkpadIL wrote on 2022-08-02, 23:32:

TrashPanda wrote on 2022-08-02, 22:07:

As horrible as it sound .. the world could do with a few billion less humans to feed, now the hard choice is deciding which 2 bi […]
Show full quote

ThinkpadIL wrote on 2022-08-02, 19:50:

To all folks here who are thinking about short play, long play, strategies and other smart activities I can only say that humans are dumb enough to destroy when everything goes fine and the same time smart enough to recover everything afterwards and make things even better. And while doing all these things, also to kill as much people as they can. 🙂

As horrible as it sound .. the world could do with a few billion less humans to feed, now the hard choice is deciding which 2 billion go first.

China sure does have a lot of Bluster and Hot air these days, they are all about saving face and making it seem like the CCP is in control ...just look at the freefall their market is currently in for an idea of how "in" control the CCP really is. With that said .. the monetary situation China finds itself in could be resolved by a War, one might be thinking rightly that China is itching for a reason to begin one.

Taiwan isn't it, China doesnt see Taiwan as a separate entity they need to fight the world over but they will for sure use it as a means to test the worlds resolve.

How we react to their theatrics will decide which direction they go, but they have seen first hand how financially fucked they would be if they did decide to throw fists first, Russia being that example.

There is no problem with food in the world and there is no problem with territory also. Simply when well-fed humans are getting bored they start to kill and loot each other because they are actually a predatory animals by their nature.

There are problems with both, some people just refuse to see it, then again I doubt you will see the actual problem and instead jump to the most obvious assumption.

If you do a little research you will quickly understand what the problem is and how it is directly affecting Chinas current behavior in regards to both territory acquisition and feeding their people now and in the future. Covid alone has already demonstrated just how quickly our western supply chains get fucked up, and you had better believe the west needs them supply chains to be working, the US alone would be up shit creek if China suddenly cut them off.

So yeah there are problems and ignoring them and denying them wont make them go away or starve you any less.

TrashPanda wrote on 2022-08-02, 23:55:

There are problems with both, some people just refuse to see it, then again I doubt you will see the actual problem and instead […]
Show full quote

ThinkpadIL wrote on 2022-08-02, 23:32:

TrashPanda wrote on 2022-08-02, 22:07:

As horrible as it sound .. the world could do with a few billion less humans to feed, now the hard choice is deciding which 2 bi […]
Show full quote

As horrible as it sound .. the world could do with a few billion less humans to feed, now the hard choice is deciding which 2 billion go first.

China sure does have a lot of Bluster and Hot air these days, they are all about saving face and making it seem like the CCP is in control ...just look at the freefall their market is currently in for an idea of how "in" control the CCP really is. With that said .. the monetary situation China finds itself in could be resolved by a War, one might be thinking rightly that China is itching for a reason to begin one.

Taiwan isn't it, China doesnt see Taiwan as a separate entity they need to fight the world over but they will for sure use it as a means to test the worlds resolve.

How we react to their theatrics will decide which direction they go, but they have seen first hand how financially fucked they would be if they did decide to throw fists first, Russia being that example.

There is no problem with food in the world and there is no problem with territory also. Simply when well-fed humans are getting bored they start to kill and loot each other because they are actually a predatory animals by their nature.

There are problems with both, some people just refuse to see it, then again I doubt you will see the actual problem and instead jump to the most obvious assumption.

If you do a little research you will quickly understand what the problem is and how it is directly affecting Chinas current behavior in regards to both territory acquisition and feeding their people now and in the future. Covid alone has already demonstrated just how quickly our western supply chains get fucked up, and you had better believe the west needs them supply chains to be working, the US alone would be up shit creek if China suddenly cut them off.

So yeah there are problems and ignoring them and denying them wont make them go away or starve you any less.

Ok, there is a problem with food and territory, so let's go and kill each other! Great plan, my friend! 😄

Namrok wrote on 2022-08-02, 23:42:

Listening to people who claim to have knowledge of what our generals are thinking, it goes like this. […]
Show full quote

Errius wrote on 2022-08-02, 21:44:

I don't understand why the U.S. administration is antagonizing China at a time of conflict with Russia. This is LBJ level statesmanship.

Listening to people who claim to have knowledge of what our generals are thinking, it goes like this.

China wants to take Taiwan. But the PLA (People's Liberation Army) is still 5 years away from developing the sorts of amphibious landing and logistics capabilities that will be required for sustained action in Taiwan. So in the near term (5 years), time is on China's side. On the flip side, China's One Child Policy has absolutely wrecked their demographics, and they are facing a steeper demographic decline over the next 50 years than any other nation on Earth.

Additionally, Xi Jinping wants to "run" for an unprecedented 3rd term, as well as finally unify China for the 100th year celebration of the formation of the PLA. So basically, China's best chance is to invade Taiwan in 5 years while their strength is peaked, and for symbolic and political reasons.

As for why we don't just decide "Fuck it" and let China reassert their dominion over Taiwan, well, TSMC makes something like 95% of the worlds most advanced semiconductors. They are such a strategically important resource worldwide, that many people, both in Taiwan and outside, would rather burn all their facilities to the ground than let them fall into the hands of the CCP. Putting aside how much of a technological advantage that would give China overnight, it would also allow China to blatantly steal the IP of nearly every American tech firm that went fabless over the last decade.

So the reasoning of the warhawks is to set off the war over Taiwan earlier rather than later. If China of today takes the bait, they will fail. It may result is the destruction of large portions of TSMC's facilities, but that result is still preferable to allowing them to fall into the hands of the CCP. It's not even incompatible with advantaging domestic silicon production. Suddenly those 2nd or 3rd rate Intel processes look a lot better with TSMC in smoking ruins and Samsung in South Korea still firmly within reach of China's sphere of influence.

Personally I'm far more skeptical of US competence in any conflict with China. I'm also far less skeptical about China's capabilities. IMHO they just want it more. Which may let them punch above their weight, inspiring them to feats of basic competence the US seems incapable of anymore.

We'll see I guess.

Funny thing about Chinas tech . .its all western designed and patented . .stolen naturally and what little isn't stolen wont make a damn shred of difference in a war when you enemy knows your tech inside and out and can shut your shit down before you get to even use it.

Why do you think China has been on this China only tech trip for the last decade ?

Because they know full well that using western tech against us in a war would be incredibly stupid.

They show a lot of force but its just that . .show, nothing but smoke and mirrors.

Hitler was able to sneak an army into Norway under the nose of the British navy. (It was one of the most ballsy things he ever did.) It's much harder to do something like that nowadays with 24-hour satellite surveillance of every corner of the world.

ThinkpadIL wrote on 2022-08-02, 23:59:

TrashPanda wrote on 2022-08-02, 23:55:

There are problems with both, some people just refuse to see it, then again I doubt you will see the actual problem and instead […]
Show full quote

ThinkpadIL wrote on 2022-08-02, 23:32:

There is no problem with food in the world and there is no problem with territory also. Simply when well-fed humans are getting bored they start to kill and loot each other because they are actually a predatory animals by their nature.

There are problems with both, some people just refuse to see it, then again I doubt you will see the actual problem and instead jump to the most obvious assumption.

If you do a little research you will quickly understand what the problem is and how it is directly affecting Chinas current behavior in regards to both territory acquisition and feeding their people now and in the future. Covid alone has already demonstrated just how quickly our western supply chains get fucked up, and you had better believe the west needs them supply chains to be working, the US alone would be up shit creek if China suddenly cut them off.

So yeah there are problems and ignoring them and denying them wont make them go away or starve you any less.

Ok, there is a problem with food and territory, so let's go and kill each other! Great plan, my friend! 😄

yes, history has shown time and time again that is exactly how you do it.

Dead people dont eat, war boosts economies and the Victors get the spoils including your enemies now vacant land and as many slaves/captives as you can take alive to farm it.

So yes .. its a plan, one that is exceptionally effective.

TrashPanda wrote on 2022-08-03, 00:03:

yes, history has shown time and time again that is exactly how you do it. […]
Show full quote

ThinkpadIL wrote on 2022-08-02, 23:59:

TrashPanda wrote on 2022-08-02, 23:55:

There are problems with both, some people just refuse to see it, then again I doubt you will see the actual problem and instead jump to the most obvious assumption.

If you do a little research you will quickly understand what the problem is and how it is directly affecting Chinas current behavior in regards to both territory acquisition and feeding their people now and in the future. Covid alone has already demonstrated just how quickly our western supply chains get fucked up, and you had better believe the west needs them supply chains to be working, the US alone would be up shit creek if China suddenly cut them off.

So yeah there are problems and ignoring them and denying them wont make them go away or starve you any less.

Ok, there is a problem with food and territory, so let's go and kill each other! Great plan, my friend! 😄

yes, history has shown time and time again that is exactly how you do it.

Dead people dont eat, war boosts economies and the Victors get the spoils including your enemies now vacant land and as many slaves as you can take alive to farm it.

So yes .. its a plan, one that is exceptionally effective.

"war boosts economies" - is the silliest thing I've ever heard. It's the same as if to say that burning your house will boost your family's welfare. 😄

ThinkpadIL wrote on 2022-08-03, 00:06:

TrashPanda wrote on 2022-08-03, 00:03:

yes, history has shown time and time again that is exactly how you do it. […]
Show full quote

ThinkpadIL wrote on 2022-08-02, 23:59:

Ok, there is a problem with food and territory, so let's go and kill each other! Great plan, my friend! 😄

yes, history has shown time and time again that is exactly how you do it.

Dead people dont eat, war boosts economies and the Victors get the spoils including your enemies now vacant land and as many slaves as you can take alive to farm it.

So yes .. its a plan, one that is exceptionally effective.

"war boosts economies" - is the silliest thing I've ever heard. It's the same as if to say that burning your house will boost your family's welfare. 😄

Silly .. nope . .Reality, though 90% of reality is very silly indeed.

War is a huge economic boost, truly staggering when you go back and look at previous wars, even bigger when the war is over and people start to rebuild and the economy just goes gang busters. Perhaps you should go do some reading and learn how economies work and how a war doesnt have the economic downturn you might expect it to have.

Heck two examples are Japan and South Korea, if WWII and the Korean war had never occurred do you think that either country would be the economic powerhouses they currently are .. or even the one the US is ?

Anyway Im done here with this thread before it turns silly and someone mentions they who shall not be named.

TrashPanda wrote on 2022-08-02, 23:55:

There are problems with both, some people just refuse to see it, then again I doubt you will see the actual problem and instead […]
Show full quote

ThinkpadIL wrote on 2022-08-02, 23:32:

TrashPanda wrote on 2022-08-02, 22:07:

As horrible as it sound .. the world could do with a few billion less humans to feed, now the hard choice is deciding which 2 bi […]
Show full quote

As horrible as it sound .. the world could do with a few billion less humans to feed, now the hard choice is deciding which 2 billion go first.

China sure does have a lot of Bluster and Hot air these days, they are all about saving face and making it seem like the CCP is in control ...just look at the freefall their market is currently in for an idea of how "in" control the CCP really is. With that said .. the monetary situation China finds itself in could be resolved by a War, one might be thinking rightly that China is itching for a reason to begin one.

Taiwan isn't it, China doesnt see Taiwan as a separate entity they need to fight the world over but they will for sure use it as a means to test the worlds resolve.

How we react to their theatrics will decide which direction they go, but they have seen first hand how financially fucked they would be if they did decide to throw fists first, Russia being that example.

There is no problem with food in the world and there is no problem with territory also. Simply when well-fed humans are getting bored they start to kill and loot each other because they are actually a predatory animals by their nature.

There are problems with both, some people just refuse to see it, then again I doubt you will see the actual problem and instead jump to the most obvious assumption.

If you do a little research you will quickly understand what the problem is and how it is directly affecting Chinas current behavior in regards to both territory acquisition and feeding their people now and in the future. Covid alone has already demonstrated just how quickly our western supply chains get fucked up, and you had better believe the west needs them supply chains to be working, the US alone would be up shit creek if China suddenly cut them off.

So yeah there are problems and ignoring them and denying them wont make them go away or starve you any less.

And so the US should just stop paying farmers to NOT farm the land and instead pay them to farm the land.

Most farms are heavily subsidized (aka payed for with your tax dollars) to hide the real cost of food.

But food prices could go way down and supply would go through the roof if the current farm land was actually farmed AND if we weren't using mass amounts of corn to make ethenol to put into gasoline.

The EPA needs to suck it and the government needs to stop being idiots... But of course that will never happen because that makes sense.

The postwar prosperity of the world is based on cheap oil. The big Arab oilfields were mostly discovered during WW2 and came online in the 1950s. It was a huge economic boost for the whole world, victors and vanquished alike.

TrashPanda wrote on 2022-08-03, 00:18:

Silly .. nope . .Reality, though 90% of reality is very silly indeed. […]
Show full quote

ThinkpadIL wrote on 2022-08-03, 00:06:

TrashPanda wrote on 2022-08-03, 00:03:

yes, history has shown time and time again that is exactly how you do it.

Dead people dont eat, war boosts economies and the Victors get the spoils including your enemies now vacant land and as many slaves as you can take alive to farm it.

So yes .. its a plan, one that is exceptionally effective.

"war boosts economies" - is the silliest thing I've ever heard. It's the same as if to say that burning your house will boost your family's welfare. 😄

Silly .. nope . .Reality, though 90% of reality is very silly indeed.

War is a huge economic boost, truly staggering when you go back and look at previous wars, even bigger when the war is over and people start to rebuild and the economy just goes gang busters. Perhaps you should go do some reading and learn how economies work and how a war doesnt have the economic downturn you might expect it to have.

Heck two examples are Japan and South Korea, if WWII and the Korean war had never occurred do you think that either country would be the economic powerhouses they currently are .. or even the one the US is ?

Anyway Im done here with this thread before it turns silly and someone mentions they who shall not be named.

War is a huge economic boost for those countries that don't suffer destruction of their cities and population losses. Just think about the amount of damage to economy when you have to rebuild whole cities, when you loose millions of lives, millions of those who could become scientists, engineers, doctors, workers. Think about even a greater number of those who become disabled. Those are alive but they can't work and need a constant financial support. Those countries economies are thrown back decades.